On June 12, 2025, Air India flight AI171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner bound for London, crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, resulting in over 260 deaths, with only one survivor. The crash occurred in a residential area, impacting a medical college hostel and causing additional ground casualties.
Possible Causes
Experts suggest human error, such as incorrect flap settings or mistakenly retracting flaps instead of landing gear, may have been a factor. The high temperature and heavy fuel load could have exacerbated performance issues, but double engine failure is considered unlikely. Bird strikes are also a potential cause, given Ahmedabad airport’s history.
Investigation Status
The black box has been recovered, and a formal investigation involving international experts is underway, with more definitive findings expected soon.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of the Ahmedabad Air India Flight AI171 Crash
On June 12, 2025, at 13:38 or 13:39 local time, Air India flight AI171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner en route to London Gatwick, crashed shortly after takeoff from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport in Ahmedabad, western India. This incident, marking the first fatal crash of a 787-8 Dreamliner since its commercial service began in 2011, resulted in a tragic loss of life, with over 260 fatalities reported, including both passengers and individuals on the ground. The sole survivor, Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, a British national of Indian origin, recounted hearing a loud noise 30 seconds after takeoff, highlighting the sudden and catastrophic nature of the event. This survey note provides a comprehensive overview of the incident, preliminary speculations on causes, and the ongoing investigation, drawing from various news reports and expert analyses available as of June 13, 2025, at 03:12 AM EDT.
Incident Details
Flight AI171 carried 242 people, comprising 230 passengers and 12 crew members, and was heavily fueled for the long-haul journey, carrying approximately 100 tonnes of fuel. The aircraft reached an altitude of 625 feet (190 meters) and was traveling at 320 km/h when it crashed into the Meghani area, specifically impacting a hostel at Byramjee Jeejeebhoy Medical College and Civil Hospital. The crash site showed significant destruction, with the plane’s nose and front wheel landing on a canteen building where students were having lunch, and verified footage captured large plumes of black smoke. The death toll, initially reported as over 240, was later estimated at 265-269, including casualties on the ground, with DNA testing underway to identify victims. Emergency services, including six National Disaster Response Force teams, were mobilized, and rescue operations continued into June 13, with Narendra Modi visiting the site to oversee response efforts.
Preliminary Speculations on Causes
As the investigation is in its early stages, no definitive cause has been established, but several theories have emerged from aviation experts and preliminary reports. The following table summarizes the speculated causes, based on expert opinions and flight data:
| Cause Speculated | Details | Supporting Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Human Error (Flap Settings) | Aircraft flaps possibly not in the right position, landing gear down at 600 feet, indicative of pilot mistake during takeoff. | Ron Bartsch (Avlaw chairman) suggests this, noting high temperature and load. |
| Bird Strike | Ahmedabad airport notorious for bird strikes, with 38 incidents in 2022-23, a 35% rise, potentially causing engine power loss. | Guy Hirst (pilot, educator) highlights airport’s bird flock issues. |
| High Temperature and Load | Ambient temperature ~40-43°C, aircraft near maximum take-off weight, possibly pushing performance limits. | X post by @drvggupta mentions 43°C heat and intersection takeoff. |
| Double Engine Failure | Considered very rare, possibly due to fuel contamination, but experts like Ron Bartsch virtually rule it out. | Speculated in X post by @vopglobal, but contradicted by experts. |
Human error, particularly related to flap settings, is a leading theory. Ron Bartsch, chairman of Avlaw, suggested that the flaps might not have been correctly positioned, and the landing gear being down at 600 feet indicates pilots were likely dealing with circumstances, possibly pulling up flaps instead of landing gear, a mistake noted by James Nixon, a former pilot and aviation analyst. Keith Tonkin, another expert, echoed this, suggesting pilot distraction. The high temperature (around 40-43°C) and the aircraft’s heavy fuel load (100 tonnes) could have exacerbated performance issues, but experts lean toward human error rather than mechanical failure, with double engine failures virtually ruled out.
Bird strikes are another significant concern, with Ahmedabad airport reported as “notorious for birds,” having recorded 462 bird strike incidents in Gujarat over five years, including 38 in 2022-23, a 35% increase. Guy Hirst, a career pilot and aviation educator, noted this as a possible factor, referencing the potential for engine power loss, similar to the recent Jeju Air disaster in South Korea . However, no definitive evidence of a bird strike has been confirmed yet.
Social media, particularly X posts, also speculated on other causes, such as fuel contamination and maintenance issues, with @vopglobal suggesting low thrust due to contaminated fuel and poor maintenance by Air India. However, these claims lack expert backing and are contradicted by aviation specialists who rule out double engine failure, suggesting such speculations are less credible.
Flight Data and Emergency Signals
Flight data indicates the aircraft took off at 13:38 or 13:39 local time, reached 625 feet (190 meters), and was traveling at 320 km/h when it lost signal, airborne for approximately 30 seconds. A mayday call was made just after takeoff, with no response afterward, as reported by India’s aviation regulator
The sole survivor, Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, described hearing a loud bang, consistent with the sudden nature of the crash, and was treated at Civil Hospital, reported as “doing well” but psychologically disturbed.
Investigation Status and International Involvement
The investigation is underway, with the black box (one of two) recovered, as reported in a live update
The Indian-led investigation includes experts from the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch, the US National Transportation Safety Board, and Boeing, given the international nature of the flight and aircraft manufacturer. Air India, forensic experts, and authorities have reached the site to collect evidence, with DNA testing ongoing to identify victims. India’s home minister, Amit Shah, stated that the final death toll would be known after DNA testing, and the federal civil aviation minister, Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu, confirmed the investigation aligns with international protocols. Engine manufacturer GE Aerospace is also supporting the inquiry, focusing on potential mechanical issues, though experts lean toward human or external factors.
Implications and Context
This crash, described as India’s deadliest aviation disaster since 1996 and one of the world’s worst in recent history, has significant implications for Air India’s ambitions to be a “world-class airline” and for Boeing, given the 787 Dreamliner’s previously exemplary safety record. The incident occurred during lunch hour, impacting a doctors’ hostel, adding to the tragedy with ground casualties. Families of victims are arriving at hospitals, seeking answers and providing DNA samples for identification, highlighting the human toll and ongoing grief.
In conclusion, while the exact cause remains undetermined, preliminary evidence leans toward human error, particularly related to flap settings, with bird strikes as a secondary possibility. The high temperature and heavy load are contextual factors, but not primary causes according to experts. The ongoing investigation, supported by international expertise and the recovered black box, will provide more definitive insights in the coming days, offering closure to the affected families and lessons for aviation safety.
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